105
FXUS64 KMEG 312319
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Light rain will continue through late evening as a cold front
moves across the region. Seasonal temperatures will occur on
Friday in wake of the frontal passage. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across portions of north Mississippi on
Friday. A warm front will lift north on Saturday and Sunday and
bring the return of above normal temperatures and humidity back to
the region. Additional showers and thunderstorms will arrive
toward the middle of next week with another cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

After nearly a month of near-record dry conditions across the
Mid-South, we end the month on a wet and windy note. Widespread
wetting rainfall arrived this morning along a prefrontal trough.
The line of showers and thunderstorms cleared the Tennessee River
over the past hour, dropping anywhere from one quarter of an inch
to nearly one inch of rainfall. Sub-severe wind gusts were
prevalent along the boundary, with several locations reporting 30
to 40 mph gusts. Light to moderate rainfall will continue through
late this evening as the main cold front arrives.

The aforementioned front will remain over the Mid-South over the
next 3 days or so. It is expected to stall over north
Mississippi on Friday and then lift back north as a warm front on
Saturday and Sunday. As it does, mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms will occur along and in the vicinity of the front.

Near record heat will continue into at least the first week of
November as upper level heights build in ahead of a deepening PAC
NW trough. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Monday. A cold front and deep trough will move across
the Central Plains during the day on Monday. This front will push
into the Mid-South Tuesday night into Wednesday. The evolution of
FROPA is somewhat unclear at this point, as synoptic models
differ on the upper level pattern through late week. Stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

JBR has slowly improved to VFR and is expected to remain there
through the TAF period. Remaining sites will likely bounce between
MVFR and IFR through much of the period, becoming predominately
MVFR near the end of the current TAF period. Some lingering
showers remain at MKL/TUP, which will continue to move out of the
region over the next few hours. Winds will remain between 5 to 10
kts, becoming N/NE areawide by 09Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion