185
FXUS64 KMEG 130931
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
431 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper low moving through the region will result in chances for
showers and some thunderstorms through Tuesday. A few strong
storms are possible this evening into tonight. Dry and mild
weather returns for Wednesday and most of Thursday before rain
chances increase toward the end of the week as the next system
pushes into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper low is pushing across the Southern Plains this morning.
This trough is interacting with a front north of the Gulf coast.
As a result, showers and thunderstorms prevail across the I-20
corridor this morning extending north into northeast MS. Clouds
and light south/southeast winds are resulting in a mild morning
with temps in the 60s.

Latest CAMs indicate decent precip chances this morning as
elevated showers and a few thunderstorms develop across the area,
associated with a leading shortwave and warm air advection north
of the Gulf coast front. The latest HREF points toward a break in
the precip this afternoon before the main upper low and cold front
approaches. Expect storms to develop across Arkansas this
afternoon pushing into the western portions of the Mid-South this
evening.

HREF mean SBCAPE values reach 500-1000 J/kg across the Delta
region late today with 0-6km shear values ranging from 35-45 kts.
Some steeper mid level lapse rates will overspread the area as
the upper trough approaches. This parameter space should support a
few strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging winds and
large hail would be the main threats. This activity should weaken
after midnight as instability wanes though chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Tuesday as the upper
low pushes across the region. Could see a strong storm across NE
MS Tuesday afternoon if surface heating creates some instability.

The upper low will exit the region Tuesday night with a dry and
mild day on tap for Wednesday. Thursday continues to look mostly
dry with rain chances beginning to creep up in the afternoon
across NE AR/MO Bootheel. The next upper trough and associated
cold front will swing through Thursday night and Friday with
chances for showers and thunderstorms though the heaviest
rainfall should remain south of the region.

The weekend forecast confidence has decreased. There is some
concern that the upper low moving into Baja Mexico will not phase
with the main western trough (operational GFS) and remains
detached (operational ECMWF). In either scenario Saturday still
looks ok though Sunday becomes questionable as that detached upper
low may then swing through late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Light rain shield continues to edge north from the Arklamiss.
CIGs should lower to IFR by or shortly after sunrise, given
persistent warm advection and light rainfall. Latest guidance
remains consistent in maintaining IFR CIGs at all but TUP Monday
afternoon. Confidence in CIG forecast after 18Z is marginal, given
many factors at play: exited showers and returning warm advection
during the afternoon. At this point, stayed fairly close to
NBM/LAMP CIG consensus.

TSRA is appearing more probable Monday evening, around the time
of the MEM inbound push. Coverage should be isolated/scattered,
with low chances of a solid line forming.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...PWB