752
FXUS64 KMEG 080217
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
917 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 910 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

-Significant river flooding will continue this week.

-Cool and dry weather is expected through Wednesday.

-Patchy frost is possible over the next couple of nights as lows
 drop into the 30s in some places.

-Increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
 Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Skies are clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A weak cold front is just
north of the region extending from western Kentucky and into
southern Missouri. This dry front is expected to move through the
region from north to south overnight. Behind the front, drier air
will start to move into the northern half of the Mid-South which
will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s by Tuesday
morning. Because of this, some areas of frost may form by morning
so a Frost Advisory remains in effect for these areas. Current
forecast looks good.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Skies have finally cleared across the Mid-South, as seen from GOES
east satellite. Although the weather is sunny and fair,
significant flooding impacts continue across the region this
afternoon. Record river flooding persists on the Obion River near
Obion. Areas downstream will also remain impacted as water will
route down through Bogota and also affect the North Fork Forked
Deer River at Dyersburg. Many roads remain closed throughout Dyer
and Obion counties. This threat will extend through at least late
week. Another area of areal and river flooding concern is over
northeast Arkansas, where the Black River, Little River and St.
Francis River are all in various levels of flooding with numerous
roads impacted or closed throughout each respective county.

The Mid-South will remain entrenched in northwest flow aloft.
This will allow a reinforcing front to pass through the Mid-South
late tonight. There is a frost advisory in effect across portions
of NE Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and a sizable portion of
west Tennessee. Although winds will remain elevated, temperatures
will fall into the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler
today with highs in the low to mid 50s. A surface high will become
centered over the Tennessee River Valley tomorrow night and allow
prime radiational cooling to occur. Another frost advisory is
likely for areas east of the Mississippi River. Current HREF
guidance suggests that temperatures will remain above the freezing
mark, so a freeze watch was forgone at this time.

A surface low will track across the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday
and lift a warm front through the region. A shortwave will track
across the region on Thursday and spawn showers and thunderstorms
across the Mid-South. Model guidance continues to increase the
amount of QPF Thursday night through Friday morning. QPF totals
will remain below an inch. Dry conditions will return on Friday.

Temperatures will moderate this weekend as both upper level and
surface high pressure build in over the region. Highs will peak in
the mid 70s by Sunday.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Light winds and VFR will prevail this evening. A reinforcing cold
front may bring a brief scattered cloud deck overnight. This deck
may be at MVFR altitude at TUP. Otherwise, expect a small bump in
post-frontal winds that will persist through Tuesday.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026-
     028.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB