071
FXUS64 KMEG 211114
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
514 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Dry and cool conditions will continue today and tomorrow, with
high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s today and spanning
the 40s to low 50s tomorrow. General warming trend will begin on
Monday, with precipitation chances returning Tuesday through the
remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Another calm, but much colder, morning across the Mid-South with
temperatures currently spanning the upper 20s to mid 30s. Do
expect for temperatures to fall a few more degrees over the next
couple of hours under a clear sky, with much of the area likely
falling into the mid to upper 20s by sunrise.

Similar conditions as yesterday are on tap for the remainder of
today, although conditions are not expected to be as windy. The
eastern half of the area will likely see some cloud coverage
through midday, with skies clearing into the afternoon and
evening. High temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal,
generally in the upper 30s to the north and mid 40s to the south.
Clear skies will likely remain into the overnight hours along
with light winds. These conditions coupled with low dew point
depressions could spell some patchy fog near to after midnight,
especially in low lying areas. Temperatures will likely be below
freezing through this time period as well, so some could
experience periods of freezing fog. Any fog develops overnight
will quickly mix out following sunrise Sunday. Surface high
pressure will slowly drift eastward on Sunday, allowing the
beginning of our warming trend into next week. High temperatures
Sunday will likely remain below-normal, but be in the mid 40s to
near 50. By Monday, expect for an even warmer pattern with highs
back into the 50s.

Moving into the Christmas holiday timeframe, guidance continues to
suggest above-normal temperatures with a wet and dreary pattern
through the middle to back half of next week. Guidance has come to
a closer consensus on the evolution of an upper-level trough
moving eastward on Tuesday, with the general consensus favoring a
dry solution across the Mid-South. However, with an influx of
moisture arriving Tuesday, can`t rule out a stray shower through
the day, but the bulk of any precipitation will likely hold off
until late Christmas Eve into the Christmas holiday. While it does
not look like the entire holiday will be a washout, if there are
any outdoor plans for the day it may be a good idea to have a
backup plan in the works. Following the holiday, all eyes will
turn to another fast moving system out of the southern Rockies and
its eventual progression eastward. Models continue to struggle
with this particular system, which has led to fairly low
confidence in any specifics forecast wise for Thursday and
beyond. For those curious about our high temperatures, they will
generally remain in the 50s to low 60s through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Generally non-impactful weather across the region to begin the
TAF period. An MVFR stratus deck is currently across the eastern
portions of the region that has intermittently caused drops to
MVFR at MKL/TUP. These drops are expected to periodically continue
through 18z. Some of these CIGs have a small window to make it
east to JBR/MEM, but confidence in this scenario is still low.
Kept TEMPO to account for this chance. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast is VFR with light ENE winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB